When 2020 started, global economic conditions pointed to single-digit percentage sales growth in the IC market after it fell by 15% in 2019, according to IC Insights. However, the world abruptly changed in 1Q20 with the rapid outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, which shut down nearly all countries and paralyzed global markets beginning in March 2020.
As shown, the current worldwide 2020 IC market expectation of $345.8 billion is $39.0 billion less than the original MR20 forecast, which called for an 8% increase this year. A further breakdown of the total IC market and a forecast for each of the 33 IC product categories by market, units, and average selling price through 2024 is presented in the April Update.
IC Insights published its March Update on March 12. This Update included assumptions for the 2020 IC market that considered the potential impact of the coronavirus. When the March Update was released, the expectation at that time was that the majority of the impact on the global economy and IC market from Covid-19 would primarily be from market and production disruptions within China. However, the impact of Covid-19 has truly transformed into a worldwide issue with the U.S. and Europe now being the “hotspots” of this highly infectious and deadly virus.
As shown in Figure, IC Insights’ current baseline forecast for the IC market in 2020 calls for a 4% drop. Moreover, global GDP is now expected to post a decline this year that is at least as deep as the 2.1% drop that was registered in 2009. How rare is a decline in worldwide GDP? Before 2009, the previous year that global GDP went negative was 1946, 63 years ago.
